http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2007/12/wind-power-as-a.html?cid=93753972#comment-93753972
This article claims 95% of baseload can come from wind with a small, affordable amount of storage.
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/17/212637/60
How so? That claim is based on a study of the output of 8 wind farms.
The more wind farms, the higher the baseload power percentage and the lower the amount of storage or backup needed.
And as amory Lovins pointed out, our vehicles have 7 times the power generation potential of our entire power grid. If only 10% of vehicles were plugin hybrid, vehicle to grid storage would more than take care of storage.
An internet enabled smart grid that used heating/cooling load timing (storing heat or cold in buildings and freezers for instance) letting them coast on stored heat/cold, would also be enough to fill in gaps in wind.
Another great backup power source is solid oxide fuel cell/turbines running on natural gas or biogas. These can be distributed around the grid in smaller units that the typical coal or nuclear power plants. The cogenerated heat used for heating, adding efficiency to the already 70% efficiency of the fuel cell/turbine.
Natural gas for this application can be diverted from heating buildings by switching to smart grid controlled geo heat exchange heating/cooling. Another big load of gas can come from biogas production from the waste stream, keeping high nitrogen run off from human waste, manure, and landfills from releasing methane (a 23 times worse GHG than CO2) from natural carbon sinks, like wetlands.
Finally as the ultimate natural gas/fuel cell/ cogeneration backup, coal, tar sands, and sour oil can be converted to natural gas underground with bacteria. Making coal obsolete.
With solid oxide fuel cell/turbines in the 20kw range as liquid fueled backup generators for plugin hybrids, vehicle to grid with the vehicle fuel cell plugged into natural gas when parked would supplement distributed fuel cell cogeneration backup. These fuel cell units are under development by Boeing, as backup generators for their aircraft and the power source for unmanned aerial vehicles. Mass produced for vehicles the cost would come down to compete with internal combustion engine powertrains.
An internet enabled smart grid, incorporating these devices, would be different from the old centralized power grid model. The old grid is designed to meet any load at anytime, necessitating huge capacity for peaks that sits idle or worse is kept in "spinning reserve' mode, consuming fuel but yielding no kwh. No matter how much capacity or power line buildout, it seems that this grid always falls short during peak air conditioning load, or ice storms, or lightning events.
A smart grid would adjust load during emergency peaks by shutting down non-essential load. Letting heating/cooling coast for instance. It would adjust to variability, becoming much more predictable, even as the grid itself becomes more variable.
A new paradigm for utility engineering is emerging. A renewable distributed generation, storage, and conservation grid, operating with smart grid technology, that will make GHG and fossil fuel use a minor part of our power system. A system that makes local, regional, and national grids autonom,ous in emergencies, but allows for distribution of power over the grid for added efficiency.
This system can pay it's own way in fuel and GHG saved, storm outage averted, trillions saved on centralized power grid and power plant upgrades, and economic revitalization with lower energy costs and a whole new manufacturing sector.
